Weak consumption of Zheng cotton still needs policy guidance

Recently, Zheng cotton registered warrants increased significantly, ** firm pressure highlights, the current price difference is rapidly shrinking, the period price out of a narrow swing market. At present, it has entered the spring broadcast season. Under the background of easing supply and slowing demand, the new year's purchase and storage policies have become the focus of the market, and the purchasing and storage prices, the pace of purchase and storage, and efforts are worth looking forward to. The author believes that Zheng cotton mid-range will maintain the interval oscillation, short-term will slowly climb under the guidance of the policy.

Spot transactions once again turned around the Spring Festival, textile companies make up the stock to drive the spot warmer, and with the end of the supplement, the spot transaction once again weakened. The acquisition of seed cotton in most of the cotton regions in China is nearing completion. Cotton farmers have limited cotton deposits, and they sell more at their fair prices. The enthusiasm for planting cotton has weakened significantly. Due to the poor quality of seed cotton in the later period, although the acquisition price of seed cotton has stabilized and stabilized, the purchase volume of enterprises remains low. The slow sales of yarns in textile enterprises restricts the purchase of raw materials, and the substitution of chemical fiber raw materials compresses the amount of cotton used. Downstream clothing companies did not flourish during the peak season and orders did not improve. At the same time, the use of imported yarn companies increased, and domestic yarn demand continued to weaken, restricting cotton consumption. The recent quotation of Xinjiang cottonland was around 21,000 yuan, a decrease of 600 yuan from the highest of 21,600 yuan, a significant drop.

The price advantage of cotton is still apparent in the near term. The cotton price gap at home and abroad has been reduced, but the price advantage of cotton is still evident. On February 28th, the US EMOT M reached the port price of 106.45 cents/lb, calculated as 1% customs duty, equivalent to 17,129 yuan/ton, equivalent to 19,065 yuan/ton in terms of slip tax, and the Chinese cotton price index was reported as 19,608 yuan. The US cotton price has obvious advantages. From the perspective of recent textile enterprises' use of cotton, the proportion of Xinjiang's cotton accounted for only 39.62%, a year-on-year decrease of more than 10%. Textile companies have reduced the use of Xinjiang cotton to varying degrees, increased the use of imported cotton, and some have no quotas. The companies directly purchase cotton yarn from the international market, reducing the consumption of domestic cotton. The recent increase in the number of US cotton exports continues to increase, and the number of US imports of US cotton also continues to increase, giving a boost to US cotton prices.

The new year's collection and storage policy guides the cotton price intention of cotton farmers in 2012 to be significantly weakened, and the country can only play a stable cotton planting area by continuing the policy of purchasing and stockpiling. As of February 28, the cumulative sales of cotton in 2011 reached 2.678 million tons, accounting for about one-third of cotton production. This not only improved cotton supply and demand structure, but also played an important role in stabilizing cotton cultivation and cotton prices. After the Spring Festival, the country promptly raised the purchase price of grain and started the policy of purchasing and storing white sugar. At the same time, according to the national document No. 1, the policy of purchasing and storing cotton will be started at an appropriate time, making the market look forward to the country’s continuation of cotton purchasing and storage policies. . If the ratio of grain to cotton is 1:10, the price for cotton collection and storage in the new year will be higher than last year at around 20,790 yuan/ton. The storage and purchase price in 2012 will have a guiding effect on the current price, and it can be considered that the closing price is the bottom of the cotton operation in the new year.

** Warehouse receipts increased significantly since the beginning of February, ** Registered warehouse receipts began to increase significantly, and ** firm pressure increased. As of February 28, there were 958 valid warehouse receipts and 1,293 valid warehouse receipts. If the forecasting success rate was 80%, the total number of valid warehouse receipts for Zheng cotton was 1992, corresponding to 15939 hand positions, and Zheng cotton. The total holdings were 209,000 lots, and the firm pressure was 7.6%, which was a significant increase from the previous period. ** The increase in the number of warehouse receipts will exert greater upward pressure on the futures price, and the current warehouse receipts subject level is 428B, which is higher than the spot cotton price of nearly 2,000 yuan at the same level and is expected to be difficult to form delivery.

Recently, the external economic situation has improved, domestic liquidity has been loosened, and cotton prices have been boosted. The cotton collection and storage policy and the sliding tax policy in the new year will have an important impact on the market, and Zheng Cotton will enter a slow climb path under the guidance of the policy.