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The US dollar index closed yesterday with the cross star Xiaoyin line, indicating that the US dollar is currently in a dilemma. Yesterday, the US dollar continued to trade at 94.80 in the Asian session. The intraday refusal of the deep retracement, and then some of the bottom-up funds began to push up the US dollar, but the bullish momentum was insufficient, and then the 95.00 mark was unable to directly break through, 1 hour short-term Pressed on the MA30 heavy pressure, maintained at the high level of the day, during the European trading session, the 95.00 line was besieged several times, but the attack was not successful, and failed to stand at the 95.00 mark, but the US dollar index also refused to withdraw. The phenomenon shows that the bulls are still stubbornly resistant. After the minutes of the Fed meeting in the evening, the US dollar was short-term, piercing 95.00 and going to the 95.10 line. It was under pressure on the MA60 line and quickly retraced. It hit a new low in the day to 94.50, indicating that the short-term has entered a low-level shock. The interval is high and low.
US St. Louis Fed President Brad (voting in the FOMC in 2016): Given that I think it is only necessary to raise interest rates for the foreseeable future, I don't think I need to care too much about raising interest rates in September or 2016. The Fed is "very close to our goal." The St. Louis Fed has doubts about the Phillips curve. The world's major central banks are rethinking monetary policy. The Fed is still expected to raise interest rates once in the next two years. Given the low growth rate and inflation rate in the United States, the insistence on the Fed’s interest rate hike only for the foreseeable future remains unchanged.
Minutes of the Fed meeting: Officials disagreed in July whether they need to raise interest rates quickly. Some officials supported the Fed to raise interest rates at the FOMC meeting in July, and several others hoped to wait for more data and confidence. Most officials believe that the risk of continued employment growth is low. Most of the voting committees saw a rapid recovery in the financial market after the Brexit referendum on June 23, which was considered to reduce uncertainty. Some Fed officials who have voting rights at the FOMC believe that they may need to raise interest rates soon. The multi-voting committee did not approve of raising interest rates in the short term, fearing that employment growth will slow down in the future.
Gold yesterday closed the Xiaoyang line with the long shadow line on the 1348 line, but the daily line did not stand at 1350, indicating that gold is still the keynote of the volatile market. Yesterday, the Asian market continued to slump, continuing the one-hour downtrend. After the intraday trading to the 1340 line, the short-term completion of the bottom, and then rebounded, but the bullish willingness to push up, causing multiple retracements in the intraday, but did not hit Wearing 1340 first-line support, gold in Europe and the United States fell into a state of continued downturn, continued in 1343 first-line consolidation. It shows that it has entered a turbulent pattern. After the minutes of the Fed meeting in the evening, the gold short-term decline has risen rapidly. In the morning, the gold was pulled all the way, and it was under pressure for the 4-hour Bollinger Band. Today, it is dominated by high altitude. After retracing, it is considered to be low.
The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR GOLD TRUST position decreased by 0.46% from the previous day, and the current position is 957.78 tons.
US 10-year benchmark Treasury prices rose by 6/32, and its yield fell 1.8 basis points to 1.558%. The 30-year US Treasury price rose 19/32, and its yield fell 3.1 basis points to 2.269%. The US dollar bond price rose by 1/32 in the two-year period, and its yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 0.738%. The five-year US bond price rose by 2/32, and its yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 1.144%.
The euro continued to rise to the small line on the 1.1285 line yesterday, and did not hit a new high. Yesterday, the euro maintained a narrow consolidation throughout the day. There was no obvious highlight in the session. After the short-term attack on the 1.1290 line in the Asian session, the pressure on the 1.1300 mark fell back. After one hour of decline, it entered the horizontal consolidation, but the overall retracement space Smaller, Europe and the United States maintained a 1-hour high Platform position shock, the euro in the evening after the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, benefited from the dollar fell, short-term higher, followed by short-term breakdown of 1.1300, up to 1.1315 line, did not break the previous day high Point, then retracement, means that the short-term is still in consolidation. Today, the main area is high slag and low slag.
Germany's European affairs official Michael Roth said on Tuesday that the UK may have a "special status" in relations with the EU, but urged the British government to start discussions on Brexit early next year.
EU spokesman Bertaud: There will be no negotiations with the UK until the UK issues a Brexit notice.
German Chancellor Merkel: The terrorists did not flood into Germany through the refugees. Before the refugees entered Germany, terrorists existed.
The pound continued to consolidate the cross on the 1.3035 line all day, and it was quite boring to run all day. It was basically a technical adjustment to the previous trading. The intraday sterling appeared many short-term fast ups, showing bullish resistance, but 4 hours. Under pressure on the MA60, the price is retraced. During the European trading period, relying on the 1.30 mark, the first line of resistance, also established a short-term shock pattern, after the minutes of the Fed meeting in the evening, benefiting from the short-term decline of the US dollar, the pound quickly rose, and then fell to the 1.3080 line and then fell back. Today, the main operation is the high-level and low-sludge thinking.
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond: The UK economy is strong and able to cope with the changes after the Brexit.
The number of UK jobless claims in July was -0.86 million, expected to be +0.9 million, and the previous value was revised from +0.04 million to +0.09 million. The UK unemployment rate was 2.2% in July, expected 2.2%, and the previous value was 2.2%.
The UK's ILO unemployment rate was 4.9% in the three months to June, with an expected 4.9% and a previous value of 4.9%. From the UK to June, the number of ILO employment was +172,000, expected to be +150,000, and the previous value was +176,000.
Crude oil rose again yesterday to close 5 yang in the 46.80 line, breaking through the 60-day line, and the upward trend remained good. Yesterday, crude oil was under pressure on the 60th line during the Asian session. The weak callback was made. In the morning, it was reversing in a sideways position. It was actively gaining momentum. After a small drop in the afternoon, it regained its uptrend, but the space was not large. In the evening, the US crude oil data fell shortly. After the 45.90 area, the author prompted online to do more crude oil. After the data was released, the crude oil oscillated higher and reached a new high in the evening, breaking through the heavy pressure area. The uptrend trend remained good, and today's low-level ideas can be continued.
With the recovery of shale oil mining, US crude oil production hit the largest increase since May 2015. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil production rose by 152,000 barrels per day for the week ending August 12 to 8.6 million barrels per day. Since the beginning of June 2015, it has risen to 9.61 million barrels per day and has reached the highest level in more than 40 years.
During the week of August 15th, the US EIA crude oil stock was -258,000 barrels, the largest decline since the week of July 8. It is expected to be +900,000 barrels, and the previous value is +105,000 barrels. In the US on August 15th, the EIA gasoline stock was -27.24 million barrels, the largest decline in the past four weeks, expected -1.6 million barrels, the previous value of -28.07 million barrels. In the US on August 15th, EIA refined oil inventory +1.999 million barrels, the largest decline in nine weeks, expected to be -500,000 barrels, the previous value of -1.959 million barrels. In the US on August 15th, the EIA Cushing area crude oil inventory was -724,000 barrels, expected to be +500,000 barrels, the previous value was +11.63 million barrels.
Al-Attiyah, former oil minister of Qatar: It is difficult to assert whether OPEC can reach a frozen production agreement. The frozen production agreement has little impact on fundamentals; however, it helps to improve market sentiment. OPEC and other oil producing countries need to act. It is not believed that the oil market is expected to return to equilibrium during the year and may need to wait until the end of 2017. The market still has an excess supply of 1.2 million to 1.5 million barrels per day.
[Overnight market review]
European stock market: Germany's DAX index closed down 140.65 points (Wednesday) on August 17 (Wednesday), down 1.32% to 10536.00 points. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 33.92 points on August 17 (Wednesday), down 0.49% to 6860.00 points. The French CAC40 index closed down 43.14 points (Wednesday) on August 17 (Wednesday), down 0.97% to 4417.30 points. The Spanish IBEX35 index closed at 129.20 points (Wednesday) on August 17 (Wednesday), down 1.50% to 8492.50 points. The Italian FTSE index closed down 245.96 points (Wednesday) on August 17th, down 1.46% to 16547.00 points.
US stock market: The S&P 500 index closed at 4.07 points (Wednesday) on August 17 (Wednesday), up 0.19% to 2182.22 points. The Nasdaq index closed at 1.55 points on August 17 (Wednesday), up 0.03%, to 5228.66 Point; the Dow Jones index closed at 21.92 points (Wednesday) on August 17 (Wednesday), or 0.12%, to 18,573.94 points.
Domestic market: Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D Wednesday (August 17) closed up 0.23% at 287.98 yuan / gram in late trading; Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D Wednesday (August 17) closed down at 0.09 in late trading % reported 4315.00 yuan / kg.
Futures: Iron ore closed down 0.7%; coking coal and thermal coal closed down 1.4% and 1.9% respectively; coke turned red and closed up 0.5%. Palm oil, soybean oil and vegetable oil rose 1.1%, 1.1% and 0.7% respectively; soybean, soybean meal and rapeseed rose by 0.9%, 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.
[Today's attention]
Thursday, August 18, 2016
13:30 France's second quarter ILO unemployment rate
16:00 Eurozone June seasonal reconciliation current account
16:30 UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate
17:00 Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value, Eurozone July CPI monthly rate
19:30 ECB announces minutes of monetary policy meeting
20:30 US to August 13th, the number of jobless claims in the first week of the week, the United States August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
22:00 US July Conference Board leading indicator monthly rate, New York Fed President Dudley delivered a speech
22:30 EIA natural gas inventory in the US to August 12
[Today's actual strategy]
![[gold]](http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/37/ac/de/d67e0ac43fe2ac00be9323c6e6.jpg)
[gold]
Gold continued to slump yesterday, the Asian plate continued for 1 hour, and after the intraday search to the 1340 line, it immediately rebounded, but the bullish willingness to push up was insufficient, causing multiple retracements in the intraday, but did not penetrate the 1340 first-line support, resulting in The upside was weak, but the downside was limited. In the European and American period, gold fell into a state of continuous sluggishness and continued to consolidate at 1343. It shows that it has entered a turbulent pattern. After the minutes of the Fed meeting in the evening, the gold short-term decline has been all the way up. It is currently under pressure for the 4-hour Bollinger Band. Today, it is mainly based on high altitude. After retracing, it is considered to be much lower.
Today's actual strategy: gold in the 1357 line high, stop loss 1362 area, target 1347 area. Pay attention to the 1345 support area below, if the downlink does not breakdown, you can consider a low multi-layout.
![[US dollar index]](http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/0f/95/4d/a89f9a4e1aef70c05600f079e3.jpg)
[US dollar index]
The US dollar index continued to trade at 94.80 in the Asian market yesterday. The intraday refusal of the deep retracement attracted some of the bottom-selling funds to enter the market, pushing up the US dollar, but the bulls did not form a joint force. The upside attacked the 95.00 mark and failed to break through, 1 hour. Short-term pressure on the MA30, short-term decline, but the retracement space is small, maintaining a high sideways in the day, showing that the bulls are still stubbornly resistant. After the minutes of the Fed meeting in the evening, the US dollar went up to the 95.10 line in a short-term, and was under pressure on the MA60 line. It quickly retraced and then hit a new low in the day to 94.50. After the US dollar fell for 4 hours, the short-term is expected to rebound. The inner sorghum and low slag are mainly low-level.
Today's actual strategy: the US dollar index is much lower at 94.40, with a stop loss of 94.20 and a target of 94.90. Pay attention to the 95.05 first-line suppression. If the upper attack is unable to penetrate, the short-term can be laid out at high altitude.
![[EUR/USD]](http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/c0/0e/1d/efd950a6d652bcb19cefc671ea.jpg)
[EUR/USD]
After the early morning short-term attack on the 1.1290 line, the euro pressured the pressure at the 1.1300 mark to fall back. After one hour of decline, it entered a horizontal consolidation, but the overall retracement space was small, and the European and American time periods remained at the 1-hour high platform position. The intraday volatility was small and the operating space was very limited. After the release of the Federal Reserve minutes in the evening, the euro benefited from the fall of the US dollar. It rushed to the 1.1315 line in the short-term, but did not break the previous high, indicating that the short-term is still consolidating. Today's interval is high and low, mainly based on high altitude.
Today's actual strategy: the euro at 1.1325 first-line high-altitude, stop loss 1.1375 area, target 11265 area. Pay attention to the 1.1255 first-line support below. If the downside is not low, consider the layout is low.
![[GBP to USD]](http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/e0/a8/c5/05f7bc14c6f430fbd5a150ae64.jpg)
[GBP to USD]
The pound retraced slightly during the day yesterday, and made a technical correction for the upside of the previous trading day. The four-hour pressure on the MA60 led the price to retrace. The intraday short-term rapid upswing showed that the bulls were still stubbornly resisting. Relying on the 1.300 mark, the first line stabilized, but the same upside was weak, establishing a short-term shock pattern. After the minutes of the Fed meeting in the evening, benefiting from the short-term decline of the US dollar, the pound re-invented to the 1.3080 line and then fell back. Today, the operation is high and low in the interval. First of all, mainly at high altitude.
Today's actual strategy: the pound is at 1.3085 high-altitude, stop loss 1.3135 area, target 13000 area. Pay attention to the 1.2980 first-line support below. If the downside is not low, you can consider a low-level layout.
![[New York Crude Oil]](http://i.bosscdn.com/blog/d9/27/cd/d91e5581dcea820531ee38bc5f.jpg)
[New York Crude Oil]
Crude oil yesterday was under pressure from the weakening of the 60-day line. It was regaining momentum and regaining momentum in the afternoon. However, the space was not large. After the US crude oil data fell to the 45.90 area in the short-term, the data was released. The level rose, hit a new high, and broke through the heavy pressure area. The daily line once again rose to 5 consecutive yang, breaking through the 60-day line suppression, and the 4-hour and daily online attack trends remained good. Today's continuation of low-level ideas can be.
Today's actual strategy: crude oil is much lower at 46.17, with a stop loss of 45.60 and a target of 46.90.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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