International spot gold continued to rise strongly on Tuesday (January 31). The US market hit a high of 1215.12 US dollars per ounce, and the gold price has already run above the 1200 line. On Friday, Trump signed an executive order prohibiting immigrants from seven major Muslim countries from entering the United States, triggering political turmoil and spawning safe-haven demand. The weakening of the US dollar also formed a safe-haven support for gold. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, fell sharply during the day and fell nearly 1%. It has fallen below the 100-point mark. The first meeting of the Federal Reserve New Year was held today. Investors are extremely concerned and hope to find clues about future interest rate hikes. The data released during the day was mixed. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday (January 31) that the US consumer confidence index fell short of expectations in January; US housing prices in big cities rose by 5.3% year-on-year in November, and house price growth was already Inflation doubled; US chain store sales rose 0.2% a year in the week of January 28, up 0.3% in the previous week.
The US dollar fell sharply on Tuesday. As of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.81% to 99.63 points. US stocks fell across the board on Tuesday, the Dow fell 0.69% to 1983.30 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.44% to 2,270.94 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.444% to 5,588.12 points. Crude oil stopped falling on Tuesday, the US oil index rose 1.63% to $53.49 per barrel; the oil index rose 1.83% to $56.33 per barrel.
Asian stock markets were on defense in Tuesday, and the tough immigration policy of the US made investors more cautious, and it also showed that Trump would turn the radical commitments of the election into action. Analysts said that if the ban is extended, there will be some challenges, so the current risk aversion is not surprising. On Monday night, Trump also fired Federal Chief Justice Sally Yates for her refusal to implement Trump's new travel ban. Analysts said that Trump announced that the sale of Sally Yates prompted gold to break through the key price of $ 1,200 / ounce. Uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration continues, which supports gold in the short term and the stock market is under pressure. From the technical analysis, spot gold will further rise to $ 1,025 / ounce, as it has exceeded the resistance of 1197 US dollars / ounce. If light gold is to rise higher, it will require political uncertainty or continuous stimulation of geopolitical tensions. At present, it seems that gold has already received such support. If the support is not sustainable, the fast-rising gold will fall rapidly.
US housing prices in big cities rose by 5.3% year-on-year in November. House price growth is twice as much as inflation.
According to data released by Standard & Poor's on Tuesday (January 31), house prices in the US S&P/CS20 metropolitan areas rose 5.3% in November from a year earlier, with analysts forecasting a 5.1% rise. October was 5.1% growth.
(United States 20 major cities price index chart, source: FX168 financial network)
Today's report also shows that the price of US single-family homes in November was better than the year-on-year increase, and the rising interest rates on mortgages, coupled with potential economic growth, may further push up prices.
In addition, the US S&P/CS20 metropolitan housing price index in November was 0.9% higher than the previous month after seasonal adjustment. The analyst's estimate was 0.7% growth, and the increase was 0.7% in October.
David Blitzer, chairman and managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Committee, pointed out that since the US election, credit rates have risen because the US economy is continuing to improve; personal income growth and employment opportunities have pushed up demand for home purchases. Putting upward pressure on housing prices; current US housing price growth is already twice the rate of inflation growth.
More data showed that seasonally adjusted house prices in November rose 0.2% from October, in line with expectations.
US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 111.8, lower than expected and previous value
According to data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday (January 31), the US consumer confidence index in January was less than expected.
Detailed data shows that the US consumer confidence index for January was 111.8, which was estimated at 113.0. In December, it was revised to 113.3, and the previous value was 113.7.
In January, the US consumer status index was 129.7, and in December it was revised to 123.5, the previous value was 126.1.
In January, the US consumer expectation index was 99.8, and in December it was revised to 106.4, the previous value was 105.5.
In addition, the Consultation Association's January employment difficulty index was 21.5, which was revised to 22.7 in December, and the previous value was 22.5. The one-year inflation rate for consumers in January is expected to be 4.9%, compared with 4.5% in December.
(American Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index, Source: FX168 Financial Network)
US Red Bookstore chain sales annual growth rate of 0.2% on the week of January 28
According to a report released by Redbook Research on Tuesday (January 31), the annual chain store sales rate in the week of January 28 increased by 0.2%, up from 0.3% in the previous week.
More data showed that the monthly retail sales of the US Red Book fell by 3.5% in the week of January 28, down 3.5% in the previous week.
The data mainly reflects the prosperity of the retail industry, released by the Red Book Research Company, which reflects a sales-weighted same-store sales. Sampled in approximately 9,000 large commodity retailers across the United States.
Outlook outlook
OCBC Bank analyst Barnabas Gan believes that "if the ban is extended, there will be some challenges, so the current risk aversion is not surprising." "Market sentiment is vigilant when the Fed is about to meet."
MKS PAMP trader Sam Laughlin said in the report that "announced the fire of Sally Yates to push gold to break the key price of $ 1,200 / ounce. The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration continues, which will support gold in the short term. The stock market has been suppressed."
Reuters technology analyst Wang Tao believes that spot gold will further rise to $ 1,025 / ounce, as it has exceeded the resistance of $ 1,197 / ounce. "If gold is to rise higher, it will require political uncertainty or continuous stimulation of geopolitical tensions. It seems that gold seems to have received such support. If support is not sustainable, fast-rising gold will fall rapidly. â€
Societe Generale 601166, SocGen commented on Tuesday (January 31) that the Federal Reserve (FED) will cut the 2017 gold target average price in light of the accelerated deflation of the Federal Reserve (FED), strong US dollar and emerging market and central bank demand. From 1300 to $1,150 per ounce, silver is lowered from $18 per ounce to $16 per ounce. In January 2017, gold rose by 4.2%, which exceeded the average of 3.3% in January over the past 15 years.
Although gold may continue to benefit from the new uncertainties of Trump's new policy, Brexit, and European elections, it is still time for the market to abandon the Trump economy's reinvestment trading. early. Gold's rebound in January is already at the end of the game, and more sustainable rebounds will have to wait until later.
At 00:43 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1212.05 per ounce, up $16.85, or 1.41%.
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