Xu Xiaonian's latest bold judgment: China has fallen into the middle income trap, house prices and exchange rates are...

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This article is a speech by Xu Xiaonian at the Shenzhen Innovation and Development Research Institute on May 5, 2017: China's economy at the turning point.

After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has been in a critical transition period. The smooth transition of this transition period determines China's economic development in the next decade or two. These years can be said to be a very critical time period.

The turning point is from economic accumulation to innovation-driven economic growth, which is a big feature.

Why is the economy going to transform? How to transform? Why is the business model of the enterprise to be transformed? How to transform? This is the main content of my speech today.

Quantitative growth cannot continue

The first phenomenon, no matter what you invest in, GDP growth does not move. At this time we said that the country is caught in a middle income trap. What is behind the middle income trap?

The so-called middle income is about 10,000 US dollars per capita income. The middle income trap does not mean that the per capita income of 10,000 US dollars is a magical obstacle. Whoever can't get through it seems to be a magical number. In this number, the developing countries in the world have lost. Coming down, it is said that a country can achieve economic growth through industrialization, but after a certain degree, the growth momentum brought about by industrialization has disappeared, and economic growth lacks new impetus, so it stops at about 10,000 US dollars.

At the beginning of the year 78, the Chinese economy was an economy with a serious shortage of capital and equipment. At that time, you invested and used advanced production equipment and industrial equipment to increase GDP quickly. But now the process of equipping all walks of life with large machines has basically been completed. It is useless to increase capital investment at this time because its income is equal to zero.

We have seen that China's GDP growth has been declining continuously over the past few years, although the government's increased investment has not decreased every year. In 2009, 4 trillion, 4 trillion is just a symbol, the real investment is more than 10 trillion, now we talk about 40 trillion, plus a 0. But why is GDP growth still falling? Because the marginal return of capital diminishes.

So now we are seeing a series of digital declines on the macro phenomenon, it just shows that the economic law is working.

The declining GDP growth rate confirms that China's economic growth model is a quantitative growth in both models, rather than an efficiency growth. When the marginal return of capital is equal to zero or close to zero, what should farmers do to increase their yield per mu? The peasants said that the "three rural" policy was implemented very well. I have three tractors now and I don't want to give me a tractor anymore because it is useless. What if I want to increase production now?

This is going to find Yuan Yuanping, and ask him some good seeds. He told Yuan Yuanping that the tractor can't increase the per mu by relying on capital accumulation. The sprinklers and tractors are all used, and the fertilizer is used. The per mu is over. If you want to continue to increase production, I will ask you for advice. Can you give me a good variety? I can continue to increase my output.

The excellent variety of Academician Yuan Longping represents A, which is an increase in technical content. The seed of Academician Yuan Longping was not given by God. It was the seed that he had worked hard through scientific experiments and screening for many years. This seed is much higher in seed technology than farmers. If we look for Academician Yuan Longping, it is to shift the power of agricultural production from capital accumulation to technological innovation. This is the core content we want to talk about today. This is the economic law we are going to talk about today.

What is the reason why economic growth is unsustainable through capital accumulation? It is the diminishing marginal return of capital. When the marginal return of capital is equal to zero, it is useless to increase capital, and growth stops. Therefore, the increase in the amount of resources to drive economic growth is unsustainable, and the increase in A to drive economic growth is sustainable, and why? Because human beings understand nature and understand the economy is infinite, because technological progress is endless.

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, we have been improving A, such as steam engines. Steam engines are much more efficient than manpower, animal power, wind power, and water power. After the steam engine, there was electricity and railway. The growth of the modern world economy in the 200 years since the industrial revolution relied not on the government's stimulating policies, but mainly on technological progress. From the steam engine to the Internet today, continuous technological advancement has promoted A, maintaining the growth of the modern world economy since the industrial revolution, and ensuring the growth of the Chinese economy since the reform and opening up to the present.

Of course, you can't separate these two growth forces. We can only separate them conceptually to understand the current difficulties facing the Chinese economy and the ways to get rid of it.

China has fallen into the middle income trap.

Is China’s current marginal capital return equal to zero? Have we fallen into the middle income trap? My judgment is: Yes.

In terms of data, probably in the late 1990s, a one-dollar renminbi investment could bring about a new GDP of about 4 cents to 5 cents; today, or last year, how much new GDP can be brought by a one-dollar investment? ? Is the marginal return of investment equal to 0 today?

The statistics we have seen are that in the past ten years or so, the investment income of one dollar has dropped from 4-5 cents all the way to 7 cents today. The investment of 1 yuan can bring only 7 new GDP. Points, not equal to 0 is almost the same. So at this time, the investment can't be pulled up, and the marginal benefit is close to zero.

Another set of data - the company's product price index (PPI) - can be seen very clearly. From 2012 to the second half of last year, all of them were negative growth, and the absolute price of the products of the company was continuously decreasing.

Why is this happening? Overcapacity. Under the pressure of excess capacity, companies are competing to cut prices, trying to keep their market share and trying to keep their sales. What does overcapacity mean? Overcapacity is no longer needed for new investment in all walks of life in China.

When the ex-factory price keeps falling, what is the investment income if you have a new investment? Investment income is negative. So we have not only passed the investment income equal to 0, but have already fallen below 0. The excess capacity of all walks of life clearly tells us that excess capacity will definitely lead to negative growth of PPI, while the negative growth of PPI means that capital accumulation is now excessive, and the return of capital is equal to zero or even negative, which means that investment cannot be Recycling.

Some of the economic phenomena we have seen at this time are easy to understand. There is now a word called "de-reality." The Chinese government is very anxious to give you a little money. What do you do not invest in the real economy? Stir stocks.

In 2015, I experienced a big stock market disaster. Now no one dares to speculate. Last year, the house was speculated. Shenzhen house prices have doubled last year, and housing prices in Shenzhen will rise. Don't worry too much when you don't buy a house. You buy it when you bite your teeth, because it will go up in the future. Don't be too happy with the house. The higher the rise, the more you fall, and the more you fall.

The central bank prints banknotes. The money is not going to the real economy. What do you complain about? The government always says, “Guiding funds into the real economy.” How do you guide him not to go because the real economy’s income is equal to zero? He does not go to the real economy. In order to allow funds to enter the real economy, there are other ways. In the case of a general surplus of capital, capital will not enter the real economy in the case of a general surplus in all industries. So printing money at this time has no other effect than creating inflation.

Once the return on capital is equal to zero, it is a middle income trap. The middle-income trap means that the macro-policy is out of order, and “disconnecting from reality” is just another reflection of macroeconomic policy. Macroeconomic policy is useless at this time.

The government went to print money, the banknotes did not enter the real economy, and went to speculate on asset prices. The fiscal policy also failed. The fiscal policy could not increase GDP. We know that most of China’s fiscal investment has entered the real economy, and private investment has fallen sharply because The return is equal to 0, and the government rushed in to invest, resulting in more excess capacity.

So it is ridiculous to talk about expansionary fiscal and monetary policies at this time. Because the expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy are actually to stimulate investment. But our economy does not need capital anymore. What do you invest in? This time the policy should not be to stimulate demand.

PPI comes up because of the currency release in the first half of 2016

What about economic growth at this time? More investment means more capacity, and more capacity means that PPI will continue to decline. Why did the PPI come up in the second half of last year? Some people say that China’s economy has stabilized and rebounded soon. Why did the PPI tails rise in the second half of last year? Is this a sign of economic stability? Why are you up?

Analyze several reasons. The first and most important reason is the money supply (narrow currency M1). What is the relationship between the two? The two are positively related, who is the cause and who is the result? Money is the cause and price is the result.

We found that the money supply and the price index are highly correlated. The PPI's small tail was lifted in the second half of last year due to the release of money in the first half of last year. In the first half of last year, the M1 growth rate suddenly increased from 5% to 25%. The money growth rate has increased so much in a short period of time, of course, it will be reflected in the price, so this small tail is tilted up.

Some people say that this small tail is tilted up to show that the Chinese economy has stabilized. I don't think so. The main reason for this uplift is that the central bank has released water again. Say good supply side reform? How do you go to the demand side to release the money? what happened? Not sure.

How is our operation at the policy level now? What is the purpose? What is the goal to achieve? Scholars are now confused. We are not sure how the macro policy is formulated. Now I spend more and more time on the micro level of research, and I can't study it at the macro level. The more I study, the more confused I am.

Some people say that the Chinese economy has rebounded, and is the tail tilted up to the right of the U shape? In May last year, an authoritative person said that the Chinese economy is not U-shaped but not V-shaped but L-shaped. I agree. Some people say that the U shape has come out and has not come out, mainly because of the release of the central bank.

There are different views on the current economic situation in the market. Some people think that it has stabilized and rebounded. But what I have heard in the academic circles is basically a consensus that the Chinese economy is still in an L shape, not a U shape. Whether the L-shape of the academic debate is this vertical or horizontal, there is no debate about the L-shape. I personally think that we are now on this horizontal, this horizontal time is still a long time, and did not come out.

In addition to currency release, there are other reasons for the rebound. One is to go to capacity, and the capacity does have a certain impact, but its impact is far lower than the money release. There is also an inventory cycle, because last year's inventory of all walks of life was the lowest in history. In order to replenish stocks, demand has risen a bit, causing a rebound.

Additional currency, the current house price and exchange rate can not keep

How do you say this year, everyone knows. This year's red line (money supply - narrow money M1) has been down this year, indicating that the economy will follow this red line in the second half of this year.

You will say that the red line effect is quite obvious, why not continue to pull it up? Then pull it up to the ordinary people of Shenzhen 603883, how can we live? Where is the price of Shenzhen going up? Now the government uses all the administrative means in its hands to fight for housing prices, limit purchases, limit prices, and limit loans. Now dare to increase the money supply? The increase in money supply administrative means can not control housing prices.

So this red line has been declining since the beginning of this year. The skyrocketing asset price is one reason why the government is shrinking the currency. The second reason for the government to shrink the currency is the RMB exchange rate. The RMB exchange rate is under tremendous pressure. To increase the supply of RMB, the RMB exchange rate will further depreciate.

Now, in the control of the exchange rate, almost all administrative means are used, and the capital account is equivalent to being closed. Everyone can feel that now I am going to Hong Kong to buy insurance, the card can not be brushed out there, and a little foreign exchange will treat you as a prisoner.

You go to the bank for a little foreign exchange and ask you N questions. I can't wait to assume that you are a fugitive. The capital account was controlled by all means and the current exchange rate of the renminbi was maintained. If the currency is issued again, even the current exchange rate will not be able to keep it.

Now we are "stretched", the East Wall is removed from the East Wall, and the head can not be managed. It is a very embarrassing state. This is the status quo of the Chinese economy.

Therefore, friends in the business community should be fully prepared for the grim situation of the future macro economy. As the currency shrinks again, the economic figures will continue to move down in the second half of this year. This L shape is still very long. It takes a few years for the L shape to depend on what the government will do next. If it is done right, the small tail of L will end soon. If the government does nothing in the reform, we will continue to move forward in the L shape.

China's economy is at a turning point: to turn to efficiency growth

Under such circumstances, in the case that this quantitative growth has not been much space, the central government has proposed a very important policy direction change in the past few years. The change of this policy direction is not due to the subsequent explanation. It is so clear that it has caused confusion in the market and folk ideology, so that we have not paid enough attention to the change of policy direction.

The change in this policy direction is that when the investment pull has failed, what is the keynote we put forward in the policy?

The first is the "new normal". The new normal is that you should not expect 10% growth any more. There will be no higher growth. That era has passed, and you don't even expect 8% growth. 6.5% is just a number. Who knows the true growth rate? Anyway, it is very low. 6.5% is a sentence from the Bureau of Statistics, and the stage of rapid growth has passed. Second, put forward the "supply side", and I will talk about what is called the supply side.

The shift of these two policies actually reflects the theme we are going to talk about today, that is, the Chinese economy is at a turning point. We have now shifted from the demand side to the supply side, and the supply side is actually the efficiency type we have called for many years. Growth, turning to the supply side is to shift from K and L to A.

Why do you turn to A? Because A is a technical level, who determines the skill level? It is not the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, not the Ministry of Science and Technology. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Science and Technology only decide on subsidies for science and technology projects and do not determine the technical level. The level of technology is determined by the company. Is the enterprise on the supply side or on the demand side? The enterprise is on the supply side. Therefore, after the supply side was put forward, I expressed support for the supply side steering.

My students made fun of me. He said, “Professor, you rarely agree with the central government.” I said, “You are not right. It’s not that I am consistent with the government, the government is consistent with me. OK?” We called After so many years of efficiency growth, the government finally agreed. Of course, his statement is on the supply side. Our argument is to rely on efficiency improvement to drive the growth of China's economy, instead of relying on the government to issue banknotes, spend money, and engage in local platforms and investments. It is not relying on this set of things, it is relying on the improvement of corporate benefits.

The so-called supply-side policy, all around the improvement of corporate efficiency. This is not in the official manuscript we are currently seeing, nor is it given enough attention in the media article. The supply side is to improve the efficiency of the enterprise. We do not need any policy to improve the efficiency of the enterprise, but we need institutional guarantee. How to improve the efficiency of enterprises? It depends on technological innovation. Our discussion on the supply side should focus on business efficiency, that is, around how to promote technological innovation in the enterprise.

Efficiency growth depends on innovation

When it comes to innovation, we have to give a definition here, what is innovation? Innovation has a lot of content, and the innovation we generally understand is new technology, new products, and new services. Smartphones are an innovation, but this is only a narrow innovation. The content of generalized innovation is much richer than the narrow sense of innovation.

In addition to this narrow technological innovation, broad-based innovation also includes innovations in business models, such as Jingdong's e-commerce, which is a retail model innovation, of course, he used some Internet. There are also some innovations that we have seen without any new technology, that is, the innovation of business models.

Innovation also includes organizational innovation. Similarly, Shenzhen enterprises such as Vanke and Vanke have a lot of real estate. How can we encourage every employee of Vanke to maximize the interests of shareholders? Vanke has made a very meaningful organizational innovation. “Business Partner System” does not involve any technology. What role does the business partner’s innovation play?

Each project has a group of partners who have managers and employees. Everyone is equivalent to being a shareholder of Vanke, which is equivalent to the shareholders of this project, and can benefit from the proceeds of this project. Use this method to motivate every employee to work hard. This is also included in A, the innovation of Vanke's business partners, somewhat similar to the innovation of farmers in Xiaogang Village in 78 years.

Now relying on the growth of K and L is no longer a play, so I have to do A, and A depends on innovation. In terms of innovation, I think Shenzhen is the first city in the country to innovate, and this city can be called “innovative city”. Every time I come to Shenzhen, I feel very happy. Every time I go back to Beijing, I feel very depressed.

Shenzhen is really an innovative city, and we must cherish this innovative environment. I saw the most innovative companies in Shenzhen. I saw the most innovative technology in Shenzhen. Many of my students are in Shenzhen. The business environment and innovation environment here are simply different from other cities in the country.

There are many reasons why this place in Shenzhen can become an innovative city. One of the reasons is that the government has less management. Later we will talk about what measures the supply side should take to promote innovation, and the supply side does not need industrial policies at all.

In the industrial policy dispute between Lin Yifu and Professor Zhang Weiying last year, I firmly stood on the side of Professor Zhang Weiying, firmly insisting that the supply side does not need industrial policy at all, and the industry needs a good and fair competitive environment. I have not seen which innovative company in China is supported by the government's policy.

China's number of innovative companies, Huawei, private, in Shenzhen; Tencent, private, in Shenzhen. These innovative companies are all private enterprises, and there is any policy support. Now that it has grown bigger, the policy has been sent to the door. Who supported him when he first started?

Ma Yun was so miserable that he could not find an investor. Ma Huateng asked his grandfather to tell his grandmother. Finally, an investor from South Africa voted for him. Why did South African investors vote for him? I estimate that South Africa did not understand China's situation far away from thousands of miles away. It was a confusing one to give him a capital and made a Tencent. Which is supported by the government? I can't find it.

Supply side four measures

So you have to do A, to make economic transformation to A, we do not need industrial policy at the policy level. What do we need? I proposed four measures on the supply side:

The first major measure to protect private property rights. What is the relationship between protecting private property rights and innovation? The relationship is too big, because innovative R&D needs long-term accumulation, it can not be generated by the ingenuity, and long-term R&D investment and long-term technology accumulation are needed to make a breakthrough. And if you want to make a long-term investment in research and development, you must protect his property rights. The significance of protecting property rights is to establish a stable expectation for future income for entrepreneurs, and only to be able to make long-term investments under the control of stable expectations.

Chinese entrepreneurs like short-term and fast-moving projects. Chinese entrepreneurs are not willing to invest in research and development. What are the reasons? The reason is that the uncertainty in the future is too high. I have invested in research and development. I have accumulated it for more than ten years. I am still not sure what happened in more than ten years. So now you see that our entrepreneurs are not investing this money in research and development projects, but transferring funds abroad.

During the Spring Festival, I participated in the establishment of the China-Europe Australia and New Zealand Alumni Association. At the inaugural meeting in Sydney, there were more than 70 CEIBS alumni from Australia and New Zealand. I told them, I said everyone came here to attend the Alumni Association. I am very touched by the establishment. I am moved by the fact that you are still in the school, but I am also very sad in another aspect. I am sad that so many alumni have gone to Australia and ran to New Zealand. You should have Staying in this land of China, you should invest in this land to develop your career. Now that you are all running, I feel sad. Of course, I don't blame you. Your actions and your choices are all rational.

Why did you run? The security of the property, the education of the child, the air, the environment, so ran away.

Therefore, protecting private property rights is a prerequisite for long-term research and development investment. You have no effective property rights protection, and no one is willing to make long-term investments. Therefore, I said that we are in favor of the supply side. We advocate technological innovation. We also believe that it is an effective way to solve China's many economic problems today, but it needs to strengthen the protection of property rights.

In November last year, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council jointly issued a notice. This is worth seeing, indicating that this issue has already been reflected in the central government. The central government is already paying attention to this issue. This notice is "Opinions on Respecting and Protecting Entrepreneurship." In March this year, the Politburo passed another opinion, which is roughly the same. Explain that this problem has become more serious now and has attracted the attention of senior management. You must protect private property rights and respect entrepreneurship, otherwise we can't do anything about innovation.

It is certainly a good thing that you have documents and opinions, but why didn't you play the role of anticipation? It is your documents and opinions that are not effective in achieving your goals. What is the most effective way to protect property rights? The rule of law is not the rule of man. Because you sent this opinion today, what about the opposite opinion tomorrow? We have seen that the government often makes some contradictory opinions, and I am dizzy. I don't know which one works. The rule of law is very clear, he will not change arbitrarily with the changes of the government, so his protection of property rights is more effective than the government's commitment.

I am very supportive of the supply side, we must do it, but the first is to protect private property rights.

Second, narrow the scope of the state-owned economy. State-owned enterprises never do A, he does K, does L, his investment impulse is very strong, he hired a large group of people. The state-owned enterprises are full of people, and people are overstaffed. He just doesn't do that. Why do state-owned enterprises not do A? No entrepreneurial spirit, no survival pressure, right.

What is the reason why state-owned enterprises can't do A? He has no motivation to innovate and he has no pressure to innovate. Everyone knows without the pressure of innovation. In the market, if private enterprises are behind in innovation, what will happen? The market will punish him, the market will eliminate him, and his innovation is under pressure from the market.

Mobile phone, for example, once the mobile phone's NO.1 is Nokia, where is Nokia now? Who knows? why? Falling from the boss is not known. why? It is also a step behind in innovation. Behind the smart touch-screen phone, Nokia has mastered this technology, but he did not launch the product.

When Apple's mobile phone came out, Nokia was still pressing the keyboard. I couldn't see the small keyboard. So small mobile phone, the finger is much thinner to use Nokia mobile phone. One innovation is backward, and the first boss who was once was eliminated. Innovation is not a icing on the cake in the environment of market competition. Innovation is the top priority for enterprises.

In the era of quantitative growth, and the era of technological innovation, innovation is the top priority for enterprises. The CEO of the enterprise must grasp innovation, the chairman of the company must pay attention to innovation, and the failed enterprise fails. It can be said that the purpose of enterprise existence is to innovate, not production, not sales, but innovation. Because the market pressure is too big, if you are slower, you will be eliminated.

State-owned enterprises don't say that they are slower. The state-owned enterprises don't care if they are slow, because he won't fall because he won't be eliminated because he is eating royal food because he has problems and the government will save him. What innovation pressure does he have? No pressure. He also has no incentive to innovate.

Where does the motivation for innovation come from? Incentives from entrepreneurs. What are the incentives for entrepreneurs to innovate? Why should Jobs innovate? Why is Bill Gates innovative? People are the same. As a person, I feel that the similarities between people are far greater than our differences. The strongest motivation for Jobs' innovation is to make Apple a century-old store, a good company that can survive, and he has the feeling of changing the world.

Gates' innovation is to make a fortune, and both are great innovators, but the motivations of the two are different. Bill Gates wants to make his business bigger. He wants to make a fortune. You don't have to blame him for being too low. We don't have to learn that Jobs pretends to be tall. I don't need it. People are very complicated animals. His behavior is multiple. Incentives to drive. Some people want to change the world, and some people want to make a fortune. Some people use his accumulated wealth to do charity and various motives to innovate.

However, all kinds of motives are innovating, and we can't see them in state-owned enterprises. If the executives of state-owned enterprises succeed in innovation, he will not be able to make a fortune. why? Because the central government CEOs are 600,000 a year, they are in charge of thousands or even trillions of assets. You send him 600,000 a year, what jokes? I want the boss of the central enterprise to manage hundreds of billions of assets and get all the wages of 600,000 a year. What am I doing? I must steal, human nature makes it happen. I am sure to ponder how these tens of millions of assets will work for me. I personally can get a little benefit.

For example, outsourcing, the price I purchase is much higher than the market price. Who did I buy from? I bought it from my buddy. Outsourcing is the same, from the part of my buddy that buys a higher than the market price, the high part. They don't have the incentive to innovate, his salary is capped, he can't share the benefits of innovation, there is no incentive to innovate, and there is no pressure for innovation.

State-owned enterprises cannot be the main body of innovation. Who is the subject of innovation? Private Enterprise. Therefore, in order to build China's innovative economy, we must narrow the scope of the state-owned economy. The bigger the state-owned economy, the less hopeful the country's innovation is.

Third, relax and deregulate. Regulation is the enemy of innovation. According to the market value, why did China have a world-class Internet company? One of the reasons is that the government has not responded when the Internet just entered China. He ignored him and he suddenly got up.

The free environment and the free flow of resources are necessary conditions for innovation. You should take care of me. You see the emerging industries supported by your government's industrial policies. We find out which government supports and which ones are. What are the consequences of the government getting photovoltaics and photovoltaics? Overcapacity is a mess. The leading companies in photovoltaics have all fallen. Therefore, he does not need government support for innovation. He needs the government to create a good competitive environment. Don't worry about it.

Now it is said that electric vehicles are the new technology direction and supported by national policies. what's the result? The result is that companies and officials collude to defraud state subsidies and are cheating. Saying "I am an electric car", in fact, he does not know what an electric car is. The company is not clear, and the officials are not clear. The two subsidies are used to defraud the subsidies. Electric car technology is still behind us. Therefore, innovation does not require government support, but it requires a free and good environment.

Fourth, comprehensive tax cuts. It is not just helping companies to tide over the economic downturn. The significance of comprehensive tax reduction is to implement the "three-cented plenary session of the 18th Central Committee" to "make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation" and liberate resources more from administrative allocation, that is, to liberate from the hands of the government. Come out and be configured by the enterprise in the market. This is the most important meaning of tax reduction. It is not only to ease the burden on some enterprises. Of course, it is necessary to reduce the burden on enterprises. The more important point is to shift resources from administrative allocation to market-based enterprises.

The above are the four supply side policies I mentioned. As you estimate, how likely is it to be adopted? Almost equal to zero. Like our marginal revenue of capital, it is almost equal to zero. I also know that it is almost equal to 0, then what am I still preaching here?

I am here to advocate that because this is my job, my job is to study, my task is to put forward policy recommendations based on my research results, as to whether this policy suggests that the government accepts or not, it does not matter to me. I will not be happy because of his acceptance, and I will not be sad because of his rejection. This is just my job.

Innovative misunderstanding

What if the government does not accept the company? We cannot afford to influence macroeconomic policies. Enterprises must do their jobs well in a tough economic environment, especially in order to innovate. At present, I have seen many companies have some vague understanding of innovation. Everyone is aware of the urgency of innovation and transformation, but it seems to be falling into a paradox of transformation.

My students told me, "Professor, I now find that if you don't change, you are waiting for death. The transformation is to find death. What kind of death is better?" I said, "The reason why this kind of paradox is Because you have a wrong understanding of the transformation."

Some of our entrepreneurs mistakenly understand "transformation" as "transfer". Transformation does not mean switching, and switching is indeed looking for death. Transformation can create a way out. Why is the change to death? Because you have switched to a brand new industry, you have no industry experience, you have no customer base, you don't have a team, you are not familiar with the supervision team, are you looking for death?

There is a story in China called "The Story of Horse Racing". What is the spirit of this story?当人家出上马的时候你出下马，当对手出中马的时候你出上马，当对手出下马的时候你出中马。这个故事告诉我们什么？

要扬长避短，要以人之长击人之短。你转行是以己人短击人之长，那不是找死吗？就像冷兵器时代的僧格林沁骑兵马队冲击洋人的长枪大炮一样，那不是找死吗？要用你的长处在市场上竞争，不是用你的短处。

转行恰恰用你的短处在跟行业中已经建立起优势地位的企业进行竞争，所以我一再强调，转型不是转行。转型往往要求在你最熟悉的企业中来思考，来改变现状，来求得生路。

这里给大家介绍一本书，彼得德鲁克写的《创新与企业家精神》，这本书是1984年出版的，今天我们读起来没有任何时之感。德鲁克在这本书里提了几个观念我非常赞同，一个观念就是“创新需要专注”，第二个观念就是“创新未必需要高科技，创新在传统行业中照样可以进行。”

德鲁克用1980年代美国的数字说明，创新型企业3/4来自传统行业，只有1/4是来自科技行业。所以我们不要以为我不是互联网、我不是大数据，我不懂人工智能就不能创新。

错了，你是卖葱的卖蒜的，你是炸油条的、开饭馆的，你是做鞋的、做衣服的都可以创新，创新有高科技当然好，但是并不以高科技为前提条件。德鲁克在这本书里面举了很多传统行业的创新，这些创新都收到了巨大的经济效益，但是没有什么高科技。

创新案例

我们只介绍一个麦当劳，他是一项伟大的创新，由于这项创新一个新的行业诞生了，就是快餐业。

快餐业是由麦当劳创新的，在麦当劳之前没有快餐业。麦当劳的创新始于纽约的一个奶昔机的供应商，这个奶昔机的供应商发现，他每年奶昔机卖得最多的是加州一家汉堡店，每年都是加州这家汉堡店向特订购最多的奶昔机，他自己好奇，为什么每年都是他呢？

于是他就飞到加州去看这家汉堡店。这一看发现果然与众不同，在麦当劳之前汉堡是怎么生产的？汉堡是一个萝卜一个坑，一个员工在一个工位上负责汉堡包的所有制作工序。从切面包，到切菜片，到炸肉饼、抹酱、打包、卖给客户都是一个员工来做。

这种生产方式有什么问题？效率低。产品质量不够标准，这是两大痛点。

不同的工人炸肉饼，有的人炸的时间长短不一样出来的味道不一样，客户感受一个店里买的汉堡味道不一样，他的产品的品质一致性无法得到保障，更不要说印度的汉堡包和中国的汉堡包了，那更不一样。这是一个统点，产品品质的一致性无法保障。第二个痛点是效率低，效率低体现在哪里？

一个人要依次完成所有的工序，制作时间长，制作时间长意味着客户的等待时间长。我要等着你一块一块做，这个汉堡包的制作就跟家里家庭主妇做饭一样，他是一道一道工序做的。

这家汉堡包的商店不一样，他是把在同一空间点上不同时点上完成的工序分布在不同的空间点上，在同一时点完成。用空间换时间。切面包的专做切面包，切生菜和番茄的关门管切生菜和番茄，炸肉饼的专门管炸肉饼、抹酱的专门抹酱……

把汉堡包的单工位制作变成了流水线的生产，解决了问题是每一道供需都标准化了，因为他是由一个工人完成的。

更重要的是他把不同的工序在不同的空间上同时完成，缩短了制作时间，也就是减少了客户的等候时间，所以这家汉堡店顾客盈门，每年都向纽约的奶昔机供应商订购最多的奶昔机。

这个纽约商人叫做克拉克，他大受启发，马上跟加州的汉堡店的老板讲，说你想退休吗？

老板说我还年轻，我还想干。他说你别干了，你要多少钱？我把你这个店买了。出了一个很高的价钱，汉堡店的老板拿着钱高高兴兴环游世界了，他把这个店买下来以后，把这种生产方式推广到全美国，一家一家地接着开店。这就创造了快餐业，这就是麦当劳的由来。

你看一下麦当劳的创新，用了高科技了吗？没有任何的高科技。就这样造了一个大市值的公司，而且创造了一个全新的快餐行业。今天我们看到的快餐业肯德基、汉堡王等等，全都是学的麦当劳。麦当劳是第一家。所以传统行业照样可以创新，没有高科技同样可以创新。

这是我们企业在创新的道路上需要澄清的一些误解。当然还有刚开始的第一个误解，那就是“转型就是转行”，错的，转型不是转行，只有在一个行业专注地去经营，长期地去耕耘和积累，才能发现你那个行业中的痛点问题是什么，才能够针对这些痛点的问题找到有效的解决方法。德鲁克在这本书里面举了很多的例子，他都说明：创新需要专注。创新不一定需要高科技。

最近我在下面看了很多的企业，中国的企业还是有希望的，我之所以到深圳来心情比较愉快，也是看到了一些企业在积极地思考如何进行创新。从这些企业身上我看到了中国经济的未来，一回到北京，全都是雾霾，未来是什么都看不清。

我看到的中国传统行业的创新，有的用了新技术，有的没有用新技术，照样做得不错。比如说有一家火锅店叫海底捞，我在深圳也去过海底捞，发现他确实有创新。去过海底捞的发现海底捞的发现在哪里？服务非常好。他的服务和其他的企业、和其他的这一些餐饮业的服务不一样在什么地方，我个人感觉，作为客户的体验跟大家分享一下。

我个人感觉他的服务恰到好处，并没有高高在上，也没有低声下气，我们的中国服务业就是这两个极端，比如你一进门他点头哈腰说“先生您来了”，弄得你很不舒服。海底捞的服务让你感到很亲切，恰到好处。

海底捞最难得的是，你到全国各地哪一个地方的海底捞去，他的服务一致性很高，基本都是这个服务，并不是说深圳这个地方的海底捞的服务让你感到舒服，济南那个地方又让你感到难受，不是的，他全国都是一样的。

这要求公司的人力资源管理一定是有他独特的地方，我没有做具体的深入调查，也就是说海底捞在人力资源管理上做了创新，这也是我们讲的创新的一个内容。我还观察发现，海底捞有一些小的创新积累起来，就使得他成为一个区别于竞争对手的品牌。吃火锅有一个客户痛点，油烟。

于是有一些火锅店就在涮锅上面架了一个吸烟机，但是噪音太大。本来几个朋友周末约了到餐馆里去聊聊天，把抽烟机一开声音很响，彼此聊天气氛都没有了，因为你要喊着说对方才听见。海底捞没有那个罩子，他的油烟怎么解决？他的油烟解决是在涮锅的周边全开了槽，油烟一出来就从涮锅周边的槽吸走了。

你用大罩子我不用大罩子，我在涮锅的边上开槽，开风口，把油烟抽走，这就是创新。微小的创新可以积少成多，最终客户能够体会到，你这里跟别人不一样。所以我出差但凡想吃涮锅的时候一定会先找海底捞，然后再考虑其他家。这个就是创新，他没有什么高科技。

在互联网的时代大家都说你要不上网你就得死，大家都要触网。谁说的？为什么要上网啊？说互联网是一个强大的销售工具，是吗？

互联网是强大的销售工具，但是我们为什么看到用传统销售方法手机公司照样可以做得很好？小米是网上销售的，中国去年手机出货量是怎么排名的？第一名Oppo，第二名Vivo、第三名是华为，接下来才是互联网销售的小米。

华为、Oppo、Vivo全都是传统的销售渠道。我并不是排斥互联网，而是说互联网他仅仅是一个工具、是一个手段。在商业、在市场上到底用什么样的手段、运用什么样的技术，取决于我的综合成本和综合效应的分析。没有必要一窝蜂地去上网，有的时候传统的方法反而比互联网更加有效。

我可以举出很多的例子来，当然你要是能用互联网我还是建议大家尽量地用，可是在我这里是不存在互联网思维的，我和互联网界的朋友们经常交流，我们也经常争论。我和马云争论过，我和周鸿祎争论过，我坚决否认互联网思维的存在，我认为互联网没有什么思维，互联网是有思维的人手中的一个工具，它本身没有思维，就像蒸汽机没有思维一样，看你怎么样去用它。

下面我介绍一个传统行业，运用互联网和数据技术对资深进行改造，取得了非常好的效益。给在传统行业工作的朋友们增加一点信心，当然我这并不是说否认互联网行业、移动技术以及人工智能，今后他们会是非常活跃的创新领域，我不否认这一点。但是在这个领域之外的企业照样可以进行创新，只是想说明这样一个观点。

这是一家服装企业，多传统啊，做衣服的。但是他做的衣服和一般的服装企业有点不一样，他是做定制西服。

我们知道过去做定制西服都要去裁缝铺做，给你量完尺寸裁缝自己到布上把你的尺寸画成版形，然后拿剪刀裁下来再缝制。这样的商业模式痛点在哪里？交货期长因为要手工师傅一件一件去做，时间有时候是一到两个月。

第二个统点是什么？贵，价格高，不方便，我要到裁缝铺去，而且贵。一套好一点面料的西服现在国内要多少钱？接近一万吧。交货期快的一个月，慢的两个月，我在香港定的西服要一个半月才能寄到我这里。

这家企业解决了痛点的问题，这个行业之所以慢、之所以成本高，是因为有经验的裁缝师傅很有限，他做不过来，而且有经验的裁缝师傅成本是高的，他要解决这个问题。用什么方法解决？用大数据。其实数据也不算太大，跟自动驾驶汽车的数据相比简直不是一个量级的。

人进去以后先三维扫描，当然现在精度还不够，还是需要人皮尺去量，如果他将来的技术过关的话三维扫描可以了，往那儿一站两秒钟扫描，扫描完了就把你身上的尺寸都输进计算机。输进计算机以后，他不是靠有经验的师傅根据你的肩宽、臂长去打版，去裁布，不是的。

而是从数据库里调出和你的身材最接近的版形，然后用一种算法来缩小那个库里的版形和你尺寸之间的差。也就是用计算机设计。

这张PPT上可以看到，上面那两片是一个裤腿，下面那两片是另外一个裤腿，不需要有经验的裁缝师傅，这些小姑娘进来了训练一下就可以做。前提是什么？数据库。前提是你的数据库要足够大，要能够存了足够多的样板，使得在库里我可以提出一个版形和你的身材是最接近的。数据库越大，适合我身材的版形就越多，然后再用算法做一些调整。

这个设计就完成了，不用有经验的老师傅再琢磨，因为你的身材是三维的，他要把你三维的身材放在平面上，变成两维的尺寸和形状，这个是需要一点经验的，而且两维的布裁出来之后锋起来还特别适合你三维的体型，他有一个三维到两维的转换，再从两维到三维的转换，这个转换不是靠师傅的经验完成的，而是靠机器完成的，这就是他创新的地方。

这个尺寸一设计完了，加工指令自动地送到了数控裁床，下面铺上布，上面盖一个塑料薄膜，底下一抽真空，就把布放在裁床的面上，由中央控制的切割头一片一片地把布给裁出来。裁好了布以后，最右边的这个工人把每一片布上钉上一个IC卡挂到了流水线上，开始在车间中游走，物联网的概念。每一片布走到什么地方，它目前的状态是什么，系统里面全都有数据。

这个布片就在挂架上走，走到了这个工位上，这个工人把这片布拿下来，IC卡在机器上一扫，屏幕上显示的就是他应该在这里做什么样的加工。开扣眼的、锁边的、缝制的，清清楚楚。加工完以后再把卡一扫挂回到流水线继续往下走。

最后的成品从颜色上、款式上、尺寸上，没有两件是一样的，全是个性化的，根据你的需求定制的。他把手工操作的定制的服装变成了工业化的流水生产，结果是降低了一半以上的价格，1万块钱的西服现在卖不超过5千。

交货期从1个月缩短到7天，保证7天交货了，如果晚到甘愿受罚，他承诺了一定做到。这就是用了一点数据技术来改造传统行业，取得了这样的效果。

我们讲创新需要专注执着的“笨人”，专注在你自己的行业，像华为这样的企业专注，几十年来如一日做通信设备，不炒股、不卖楼、不做金融、不上市，大家说华为太高大上了我们学不了。

老干妈行吗？人家就做辣酱，也是不炒股、不卖楼、不做金融、不上市，人家把这瓶辣酱卖到了全世界，无论中国人走到哪里，都可以买到老干妈辣酱。我在悉尼、纽约、巴黎都可以买到老干妈的辣酱，他的全球销售体系一定有独到之处，他是怎么做到的？

所以我们不要妄自菲薄，觉得自己所在这个行业没有什么好做的，一定要跨界转移到高科技行业中去，不是这样的。就在自己最实际的行业中我们照样可以创新。

我们看到一些国外的企业在跨界，我们自己也想学，其实这些国外的企业根本就没有在跨界，我们没有仔细地去观察和分析。

比如说谷歌，谷歌做搜索引擎的为什么做自动驾驶汽车，引得我们好多的中国企业根本就没有汽车行业的经验，现在都纷纷做起了电动汽车和无人驾驶汽车。我说你有什么技术积累可以做无人驾驶机车？谷歌为什么可以做？

谷歌之所以做无人驾驶汽车，因为无人驾驶技术正是谷歌的畅想，谷歌没有跨界，而是把他的核心技术延伸到了自动驾驶上。自动驾驶用的是谷歌的图象处理技术，图像和数据处理的技术这正是谷歌搜索多年来积累的优势所在，所以他没有跨界。

你不能把谷歌的汽车看成是一辆汽车，你应该把谷歌的汽车看成是一部强大的数据处理器，因为他通过声光电各种各样的传感器在识别周围的环境，有的是图像，有的是声音，有的甚至是热能，他把这一系列传感器获得的信号输入到他的中央处理器当中去，判断我这个车周围都有几辆车在开，这几辆车的速度是多少，发生碰撞的概率是多少，进行快速地运转。

当两辆车非常接近的时候，他做出判断驾驶盘拐弯。我们看谷歌的自动驾驶汽车视频可以看到，当一辆车离得特别近的时候它自动就拐走了。

实际上他是根据传感得来的信号，对这些信号进行处理分析，然后做出操作的指令。因此谷歌的自动驾驶汽车实际上不是传统意义的汽车，他的核心是强大的数据和图像的处理器，而这正是谷歌的技术。

我们的企业很多既没有做过车，也搞不清楚图象处理是怎么回事，他就贸然地冲进去了，那不找死吗？他有什么技术能力能够做这些东西？你不要看国外的企业，其实国外的企业他的跨界比国内的企业要少多了，他是以专注而著称的。

小结

总体来说中国的宏观经济现在没什么好看的，大家都说未来宏观经济有很多不确定性，在我看来未来宏观经济没有什么不确定性，非常确定的，就是L形的长尾巴，大家不必对宏观感到焦虑，焦虑的原因是我们难以把握，其实现在宏观我觉得很好把握。

你就准备好L形的尾巴还有个三五年就好了，不必再为这些事情再花时间费脑筋去思考，要思考的是在长L形中企业怎么办，从过去的制造转向研发，从过去的市场份额转向思考创新，转向产品，专注产品、专注技术。以中国企业家的才能，以中国市场的巨大，我相信只要我们下决心转型，这个任务是可以完成的。而只有中国的企业能够创新，不断地保持活力，中国的宏观经济未来就有希望。

我就讲到这里，谢谢大家！

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