â– Golden Years is a cultural media enterprise in the field of radio, television and Internet. It has formed a diversified business covering three major areas: broadcasting and television, operators and mobile internet. It involves TV transmission coverage services, content digital marketing, advertising marketing and agency, and film and television. Content agent distribution, mobile Internet value-added services, video social e-commerce, video game interactive IP development, mobile IPTV value-added services and other fields. At present, the company is actively using the new three-board financing platform to build a multi-screen industrial ecosystem based on TV screens and mobile phone screens, “content + platform + serviceâ€, relying on the resource advantages of broadcasting, telecommunications and other fields accumulated in the past.
â– The company's operating income from 2013 to 2015 was RMB 89 million, RMB 128 million and RMB 230 million respectively. The compound annual growth rate in the past two years was 60.75%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 635.26 respectively. Ten thousand yuan, 7,668,100 yuan and 27.290 million yuan, the compound annual growth rate reached 107%. With good performance growth, the company successfully entered the list of innovation companies in line with the standard two.
■Whether it is in the short-term, medium-term or long-term, the golden years are all new three-board enterprises with good investment value. In the short-term, the company's existing channels such as TV channel transmission channel services, content digital marketing services, and value-added telecommunications services can provide stable income and profit sources for the company every year, and there is still room for growth. In the medium term, mobile IPTV Big IP development and Seaweed's three innovative businesses are expected to bring about a burst of corporate profits. In the long run, the company is one of the few (tens of) companies in the country that are rooted in the field of broadcasting and television. With its unique resource advantages, it has acquired the resources of telecom operators through the acquisition of Hangzhou. Based on this scarce resource, the company's “content + platform + service†cross-screen industry ecosystem is forming, and its future growth potential is unlimited.
■It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2016 to 2017 will be 360 ​​million yuan and 580 million yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 46 million yuan and 78 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the company's current 46.10 million shares of earnings per share. They are 1 yuan/share and 1.69 yuan/share respectively. Taking into account the valuation characteristics of the New Third Board, we give the company's 2016 earnings per share estimate of 20 times to 25 times, the corresponding reasonable valuation range is 20 yuan / share ~ 42.25 yuan / share. Since the company's current share price is only about 15 yuan / share, there is a large upside.
1.Company Profile: Cultural Media Enterprise with Core Advantages
Founded in 2011, the company started from research and development, production and sales of satellite receiving and decoding equipment, and gradually extended its business to TV channel transmission channel services, content digital marketing services, advertising marketing and agency, film and television content agency distribution, and mobile. Internet value-added services and other fields. After listing in the new third board in October 2015, the golden years began to rely on its own financing advantages, relying on the resources accumulated in the field of broadcasting, telecommunications and other fields accumulated in the past, to create a "content + platform + service" based on TV screen and mobile phone screen. The cross-screen industry ecosystem. Up to now, the golden years have formed a diversified business covering the three major areas of broadcasting and television, operators and mobile internet, and it is gradually forming a new TV screen industry layout of “smart TV + application store + mobile phone remote control + multi-screen interactionâ€. , can connect DVB + IPTV + OTT terminal into the family living room, fully occupy the home Internet traffic portal.
An excellent and stable core management team is one of the important advantages of the golden years. Most of the company's entrepreneurial and core management teams are composed of team members and media industry experts who are engaged in satellite TV coverage services. They have more than 10 years of experience in management and management, and have a deep grasp of market demand and industry development trends. In addition, the company also focuses on attracting talents through incentives. Through the two employee shareholding platforms of Yumi Investment and Liulian Investment, about 70 employees currently hold the company's shares directly or indirectly, which increases the ownership of the core employees. sense.
2. Operational situation: high growth in performance and steady increase in gross profit margin
The operating income realized from 2013 to 2015 was RMB 89 million, RMB 128 million and RMB 230 million respectively. The compound annual growth rate in the past two years was 60.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6,352,600 yuan, 7,668,100 yuan and 27,290,200 yuan, the compound annual growth rate reached 107%. With good performance growth, the company successfully entered the list of innovation companies in line with the standard two. In addition, the company also won the title of “2015 Most Investing Growth Enterprise in Cultural Industry†at the Cultural Industry Innovation and Entrepreneurship Conference during the recent ICIF.
From the perspective of income structure, the business before 2015 is mainly composed of four channels: TV channel transmission channel service, content digital marketing service, advertising marketing and agency and equipment sales. In 2015, the value-added telecom service was added due to the acquisition of Hangzhou. , resulting in a substantial increase in total turnover. The company's revenue in 2015 is as follows: Value-added telecommunications business achieves operating income of 74.16 million yuan, accounting for 32.28% of revenue, which is the company's largest business segment; TV channel transmission channel service income of 73.44 million yuan, sales accounted for 31.97%, It is the second largest business segment; in addition, content digital marketing, advertising marketing and agency and equipment sales totaled 80.36 million yuan, accounting for 34.98% of the total turnover.
With the continuous introduction of new business and continuous optimization of business structure, the company's gross profit margin has also gradually increased in recent years. The gross profit margins from 2013 to 2015 were 17.74%, 20.72% and 33.42%, respectively, mainly due to content figures. Marketing, advertising marketing and agency, value-added telecommunications and other businesses have higher gross profit margins and greater profit elasticity than the company's traditional TV channel transmission channel services and equipment sales.
We believe that with the company's IPTV value-added services (mobile phone IPTV), film and television content production and big IP development, and the three innovative businesses of Seaweed's purchase and implementation, the growth of the three years will be faster and the business structure will be faster. Will be more optimized.
3. Deeply cultivate radio and television, layout mobile internet
The business segments of the Golden Years include TV transmission coverage services, content digital marketing services, advertising marketing and agency, film and television content agency distribution, mobile Internet value-added services and other sectors, and recently vigorously develop IPTV value-added services (mobile phone IPTV), video Content production and big IP development and Seaweed's three innovative businesses. So many business segments seem complicated, but they are all derived from the company's most original TV transmission coverage business, not casually cross-border. In the future, the company will rely on its own resources and advantages to build its own unique media, entertainment and shopping ecosystem around the core strategy of “content + platform + service†multi-screen industry layout.
To understand the current business layout and development strategy of the Golden Years, we must start from the development process of the company and the resources and advantages accumulated in the development process.
3.1 Business extension based on radio and television resources
The Golden Year was established in 2011. At the beginning of its establishment, the company's main business was to provide satellite signal receiving and decoding equipment for the receiving front end (the local broadcasting and television network company). China's TV channels are divided into Wei video channels (mainly including CCTV, provincial satellite channels and national shopping channels, etc.) and terrestrial channels (mainly local TV channels). The TV programs of Wei video channels require radio and television network companies from all over the country. The installed satellite signal receiving decoder is decoded before it can be sent to thousands of households. The founding team of the Golden Years is a person who has had more than 10 years of experience in the field of broadcasting and television. He knows the importance of satellite signal receiving and decoding equipment to satellite TV transmission. Therefore, when the company was founded, it resolutely positioned its initial business in satellite signal reception. The field of decoding equipment has also laid a solid foundation for the company's future business expansion. Up to now, satellite signal receiving and decoding equipment is still an important source of performance for the golden years. In 2015, the company contributed revenue of 9.4 million yuan.
In the process of engaging in satellite signal receiving and decoding equipment business, the company has found a new business opportunity - TV channel transmission channel service. Due to the limited bandwidth of local broadcasting and cable network companies, the number of TV channels that can be transmitted is about 40~50, and local terrestrial channels and CCTV account for half of the bandwidth, leaving only 20~25 bandwidth for other TV channels. There are one or two hundred satellite TV channels in the country. It is impossible for all satellite TVs to enter the wired network of each place, which has given birth to new business opportunities. On the one hand, Wei video channel has to go through commercial negotiations to enter the local cable network, and there are more than 10,000 large and small cable TV network companies in the country. The negotiation work is massive, and it is impossible to negotiate directly with each network company. Golden Years provides packaged commercial negotiation services for the nation's satellite video channels through its channel resources that are widely contacted by local network companies, helping the video channels to enter the local cable network they want to cover, and charging a certain fee; on the other hand, After the signal of Wei video channel is connected to the local cable network, it does not mean that it can get very secure transmission. In response to this, the background monitoring service has been launched in the golden years, which can effectively guarantee real-time transmission and coverage in place, and Charge a certain service fee. Up to now, the company has provided channel services for 25 national video channels and 5 national shopping channels including CCTV. The business contributed revenue of 73.44 million yuan to the company in 2015.
After that, the golden years also derived new business units such as content digital marketing services, advertising marketing and agency, and film and television content agency distribution based on the TV channel transmission channel service business. The content digital marketing service mainly provides promotional marketing services for TV programs or TV series through online marketing on Weibo, WeChat, forums, websites and other online platforms, and enhances the popularity of TV programs. Advertising marketing and agency and film and video content agency is also a derivative business formed by the company based on the resource advantages of the broadcasting and television field. These derivative businesses realized revenue of 80.36 million yuan in 2015, accounting for 34.98% of the turnover in the year.
We believe that through the satellite signal receiving and decoding equipment and TV channel transmission channel service business, the golden years have opened up the connection between local cable network companies and TV stations, becoming the only listed company in the country to operate professional services for TV live channels, and established in the field of broadcasting and television. Unique channel and resource advantages. With the enhancement of the financing ability brought by the listing of the NEEQ, it is expected that the company will use these resource advantages to generate business segments with greater market prospects and profit prospects. For example, the company is focusing on the development of large IP and seaweed. .
3.2 Acquisition of Hangzhou to enter the Internet to enter the Internet, master the resources of operators
In the context of the penetration and integration of the broadcasting industry and the mobile Internet, the Golden Years realized that it is not enough to have only resources in the field of broadcasting and television. For this reason, the company acquired Hangzhou Shangan Network Technology Co., Ltd. in 2015. % equity, officially entered the Internet field, enhancing the company's mastery of operator resources. Hangzhou Ashore is a professional mobile value-added telecommunications service provider, and focuses on the research and development and operation of mobile Internet mobile phone applications. It has stable status through three forms of the three major telecom operators in the country's 27 provinces (autonomous regions). Partnership.
The business scope of Hangzhou Ashore covers audio-visual reading, mobile application stores, mobile video, mobile animation, mobile games, mobile rich media, web games and other fields. The value-added telecommunications content is provided in the telecom Tianyi space base and Tianyi reading base. Most of the top three in the industry, such as Love Animation Base, Love Game Base, and Mobile Reading Mobile Newspaper. Hangzhou Landing achieved operating income of 74.16 million yuan in 2015. According to the profit forecast agreed in the equity transfer agreement, the annual net profit after tax realized in 2015 and 2016 should be no less than 19 million yuan and 23 million yuan respectively.
The golden years and the landing of Hangzhou have many complementary and synergistic effects in terms of business and resources. On the one hand, the resource advantages of the golden years are mainly concentrated in the field of broadcasting and television, and the stable cooperation relationship between Hangzhou Ashore and the three basic telecom operators and mature marketing channels can provide a good platform for the expansion of mobile Internet services of listed companies. On the other hand, the high-quality channels and content operation capabilities of Hangzhou's landings have provided the necessary distribution channels for the company's proposed large IP operations, and again, with the help of the strong resource integration capabilities of Hangzhou. The financing ability of landing ashore will enable it to gain a broader development space. In the future, the company will inject text and audio reading on the mobile Internet distribution channel on the shore of Hangzhou.
4. The company's "content + platform + service" cross-screen industry layout is forming
The rise of smart TV, the promotion of triple play policy, and the development of broadcasting and television as the fourth largest basic operator have provided tremendous development opportunities for the business development of the golden years. All the big innovative businesses of the company are based on the industry. The strategic layout of the development trend judgment, the goal is to create a cross-screen industry ecosystem based on “content + platform + service†between TV screen and mobile phone screen.
4.1 Industry change provides opportunities for the layout of the multi-screen industry
4.1.1 The number of smart TV users is growing rapidly
Since the birth of the smart TV, it has developed rapidly with the momentum of the spark, which has caused more and more people to return to the TV screen from the computer and mobile phone screen. Statistics show that in 2015, the total coverage of 68 satellite TV channels nationwide reached 53.78 billion person-times, an increase of 1 billion person-times compared with 2014, a record high, and an annual growth rate of about 10% per year.
Smart TVs are generally divided into four categories: DVB box, IPTV box, OTT box and OTT TV. Among them, DVB box used to be one-way communication, and does not have on-demand and interactive functions. However, broadcasting and television has made two-way transformation of DVB in many large cities. It has the function of smart TV; IPTV is mainly led by telecom operators, which is equivalent to putting the signal of the grid to the telecom broadband, which can both access the Internet and watch TV; OTT box and OTT TV are mainly TV hardware manufacturers and Internet companies are doing it, including LeTV Box, Tmall Box, etc. Due to policy restrictions, OTT is currently unable to engage in live TV services. As of the end of August 2015, the number of IPTV users nationwide exceeded 70 million. The average annual growth rate of users in 2008~2015 was 69.5%. It is expected that users will exceed 100 million in 2016. In 2015, the number of OTT box users reached 59 million. It is estimated that the number of users will reach 79.2 million units in 2016, and the number of OTT TV users will reach 79 million units in 2015. It is expected that the number of users will reach 109 million units in 2016.
We believe that the number of smart TV users represented by IPTV and OTT will show a very rapid growth based on the following advantages. First of all, compared to computers and mobile phones, TV screens are bigger and give a much better visual experience. When smart TVs have interactive entertainment functions like computers and mobile phones, more people will want to return to TV. Secondly, Television has become an important link to maintain family feelings, and television is placed in an important position in almost all living rooms of the family. Based on the promising prospects for the growth of smart TV users, many companies, including radio and television, telecom operators, Internet companies, and TV hardware manufacturers, will seize the entrance to the living room.
4.1.2 Triple-play integration promotes multi-screen integration
The promotion of triple play in China has brought about technological and industrial changes, and it is likely to promote the development of multi-screen integration. The integration of the three networks not only brings the rapid expansion of the network and the wide-scale integration of services, but also promotes the advancement of technologies such as cloud computing, CDN, and intelligent terminals, and provides a good new solution for multi-screen convergence. Development environment. One of the core concepts of multi-screen convergence is to provide content services that seamlessly switch between screen and screen around the daily needs of users. It is expected that the advancement of technology will be able to unify the basic services of existing IPTV, mobile TV-based mobile TV, and high-definition digital TV, enabling users to truly cross the screen boundaries and obtain service-level convergence services.
In addition to IPTV, radio and television will become the fourth largest basic telecom operator in the country and will also bring the development of smart TV and its related multi-screen convergence. In May this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Basic Telecommunications Business Operation Permit" to China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd., and approved its operation of the domestic Internet data transmission service and domestic communication facilities service business nationwide, and the world-recognized 700M gold band was given. Radio and television, compared with the current 4G network, the 700M frequency band spreads faster, which is very suitable for high-definition video transmission. It is expected that this change in the competitive landscape of basic operators will benefit the development of smart TV and its related multi-screen convergence. As one of the few companies with channel advantages in the field of radio and television, the Golden Year is expected to face more development opportunities.
4.2 Mobile IPTV growth space is unlimited
Focusing on the integration of the three networks, the Golden Year and Sichuan Telecom jointly developed the mobile version of IPTV. The project created an independent Neoview multi-screen interactive management platform to better integrate the TV screen through innovative application, content and platform services. And the mobile phone screen, opened a new window of mobile phone IPTV, and also created a new mode of IPTV value-added services. Through the mobile version of IPTV, users can watch all the TV live broadcasts in addition to the video app like “Iqiyiâ€, which is equivalent to the upgraded version of the video app.
Since the mobile version of IPTV can be included in the home broadband package, and the traffic fee is not separately charged, it is expected that the growth rate of the user will be very fast. In addition, the company's first cooperation in Sichuan Telecom is the best in the IPTV field, with about 8 million users, accounting for one-tenth of the country, and is expected to grow to 10 million by the end of the year. The scale of Sichuan Telecom users and the rapid growth of user data provide an endless imagination for the company's IPTV value-added services (mobile version IPTV) business.
In terms of profit model, on the one hand, according to the user volume, Sichuan Telecom will charge a certain basic service fee per month (it is estimated that each user will charge 3~4 yuan per month), which will form a relatively stable income; on the other hand, In the mobile version of the IPTV interface, click-through packages such as “Liu Jin Theater†and “Overseas Theater†will be launched to attract users to pay for viewing and gain value-added service income.
4.3 Seaweed Video Purchase Opens a New Mode of Shopping Social E-commerce
Seaweed is the innovative video social e-commerce platform that spans the TV screen and mobile phone screen. It is positioned as a new generation of video social e-commerce, which is the main means of realizing the company's home Internet traffic portal. Seaweed purchases a combination of shopping scene recognition, big data product recommendation, talent shopping sharing, homemade short video and web red live broadcast, circled boot purchase and other functions. Compared with the traditional e-commerce platform and traditional TV shopping, Seaweed has obvious characteristics and has formed a differentiated competitive advantage. On the one hand, Seaweed can purchase goods into the scene, using video to arouse consumer interest, thus creating a desire to buy, which is not available on ordinary e-commerce platforms and traditional TV shopping channels; on the other hand, seaweed The purchase and utilization of the popular Internet red economy and fan economy at the present stage, joined the elements of Daren and Net Red to recommend “good thingsâ€, and use the current popular evaluation mechanism to distinguish it from the general preaching purchase recommendation, which can better stimulate consumption. In addition, Seaweed Vision provides a dual-screen interactive dual-traffic portal combining TV and mobile terminals, which is more characteristic in terms of user experience and traffic sharing.
Seaweed purchase will mainly rely on the company's advantageous broadcasting and television network platform, and it is expected to cover about 20 radio and television networks in the future. In the profit model, the company “purchased and sold itself†on the one hand, and purchased some “explosive models†products for sale on the seaweed purchase to obtain the difference in sales; on the other hand, the video and merchandise of other TV shopping platforms were introduced. The platform is redeveloped and then divided according to the actual sales volume.
Data show that in 2015, China's TV shopping sales totaled 59.18 million items, with sales reaching 39.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%. TV shopping has become more and more accepted. According to the company's plan, Seaweed's purchase is expected to be fully launched in the near future, which is expected to be an important factor in triggering the company's 2016 and future performance growth.
4.4 Powerful IP to make up for the company's content short board
Through years of development, the golden years have established a good platform and service advantages in both radio and television and other telecom operators, but the lack of content has become an important factor restricting the company's development. In order to successfully create a “content + platform + service†cross-screen industry ecosystem, the company began to leverage the capital market financing advantages, and vigorously develop large IP content development business to complement the company's content shortcomings.
In the field of film and television content, the golden age has been in the layout of content development, after the development of IP in recent years, and the integration of many producers, screenwriters, director resources in the industry, covering urban emotional drama, war drama, spy war drama , and costume dramas and other types of drama production experience, while constantly accumulating resources and experience in the distribution channels. Now that it has the conditions for film and television content production and large IP development, it is ready to greatly enhance the company's ability in film and television content production. At present, the company is actively preparing for the production of an urban emotional drama "Golden Moonlight" and two online custom dramas. At the same time, the company has reserved more than ten high-quality IPs such as the ancient costumes of the Tang Dynasty, the legendary anti-war classics, and the Ma Ma Li Ri. Among them, "Golden Moonlight" is expected to become the first-line drama of the first-line TV. The two online dramas are planned to be customized by Sohu Video and Youku Tudou. In the field of game content, the future will focus on the game linkage, and the company has added high-quality The game development team has successfully developed a strategy game called "Monster Castle", which is distributed worldwide by Tencent.
5. Earnings forecast and valuation
We believe that in the short, medium and long term, the golden years are all new three-board enterprises with good investment value. In the short-term, the company's TV channel transmission channel services, content digital marketing services, advertising marketing and agency, value-added telecommunications services and other existing businesses can be stable income and profits every year, and there is still room for growth; in the medium term, Mobile phone IPTV, big IP development and Seaweed's three innovative businesses are expected to bring about explosive growth. In the long run, the company is one of the few companies in the country that are rooted in the field of broadcasting and television. With unique resource advantages, and through the acquisition of Hangzhou ashore to master the resources of other telecom operators, relying on this scarce resource, the company's "content + platform + service" cross-screen industry ecosystem is forming, and the future growth potential is unlimited.
It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2016 to 2017 will be 360 ​​million yuan and 580 million yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 46 million yuan and 78 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the company's current 46.10 million shares of earnings per share. For 1 yuan / share and 1.69 yuan / share. Taking into account the valuation characteristics of the New Third Board, we give the company's 2016 earnings per share estimate of 20 times to 25 times, the corresponding reasonable valuation range is 20 yuan / share ~ 42.25 yuan / share. Since the company's current share price is only about 15 yuan / share, there is a large upside. (CIS)
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