Explosive items and social media are affecting fashion trends. But who is deciding to explode and trend? The secret of this fashion industry has made outside consumers more and more curious.
Nowadays, whether consumers are concerned about fashion, when asked what kind of problems this year's fashion trends have, they can probably say some answers. This is due to the reshaping of trend transmission by social media, which has greatly shortened the fashion chain from the high-end fashion T-stage to the popular consumer goods chain. In the past, it took at least half a year from the release trend of the four major fashion weeks to the production of products. It takes longer to spread from Europe and America to China. Now consumers only need an Instagram picture to accept the fashion trend.
In the fashion industry classic movie "Women wearing Prada", the film's insinuation of the VOGUE editor Anna Wintour's female editor-in-arms reprimanded the assistant's words became a classic, the assistants dismissed the fashion editor's styling, while the female The editor-in-chief said to her, "You think this has nothing to do with you. You chose this blue loose sweater from the closet and tried to tell others that you are too busy to care about your own wear, but you have to know that the clothes are not only It’s blue, but because of the sky-blue military jacket designed by Yves Saint Laurent, then this blue has become a favorite of designers. Later, the mid-range brand emulation makes you get this from their discounted goods. A piece of clothing."
The film made consumers aware of the fashion chain of fashion trends, from high-end brand designers to mid-range brands to the general public. However, today's fashion industry has undergone tremendous changes under the impact of the Internet, big data and social media.
Throughout the 20th Spring and Summer Fashion Week, the fashion trend has become more and more obvious. PVC material, tassels, plaids, ginger and silver are intensively appearing, and the ruffles and pinks that have been popular for several seasons are still strong. . Especially in the show of Chanel, PVC material can be seen almost everywhere, and Gucci, which used to claim complicated style, also added a large number of plaid fabrics to men's wear.
In the past, people needed fashion magazines to summarize trends, and now the fashion trends are becoming more and more straightforward. It has been found that brands of similar colors always appear similar colors, cuts and themes. For example, Philipp Plein, Kith and Gucci used Disney prints in the spring and summer 2018 series, while Thom Browne put the little mermaid cartoons. The soundtrack is the show music. For example, in the past two years, the Latin alphabet driven by Vetements and the exquisite animal embroidery triggered by Gucci, in a certain year, various brands began to launch large handbags, and after one season, they began to launch mini handbags.
Not surprisingly, these trends will be written by fashion editors in the trend summary, and then become the hottest item for next spring, driven by the street shooters of fashion bloggers and stars. But who is the decision of these trends? Is the similar trend everywhere ubiquitous?
In the master era of Yves Saint Laurent, the fashion trends are largely determined by the designer. However, as the degree of fashion industrialization continues to increase, the decision to explode and trend may no longer be a design team, nor is it a source of inspiration for the brand's big fuss, but the trend forecasting agency with the most discourse power.
Trend forecasting is not a new industry. It has a long-standing presence in the fashion industry and is not known to the public. Trend predictions are widely used in various design fields including interior decoration and material design. In general, trend predictions find common ground by conducting extensive surveys, data collection, and algorithmic calculations on society, and use this as a basis for predicting the conclusions of the next season's fashion trends. This series of conclusions can even be specific to a range of design elements such as color, fabric, texture, textiles, graphics.
One of the most famous trend forecasting organizations in the fashion industry is WGSN, a New York company specializing in fashion forecasting and trending information. It has branches around the world, and its clients include fashion brands, buyers and other related business groups.
WGSN's general manager Kevin Silk said a few years ago, "What we do is to turn a lot of information into specific trends for the fashion industry through our trend forecasters. In fact, when fashion brands start a new season of design Trend forecasting has already extended its reach to fabrics located upstream of the supply chain. For example, if fabrics offer more plaid fabrics, then more brands use plaid fabrics, so there is a new season of plaid everywhere. Visible situation.
Second, most of today's brands are customers of trend forecasting organizations. Ordinary consumers are unfamiliar with WGSN because the nature of this institution is for B-side companies, not for C-end consumers, and WGSN is almost “monopoly†in the fashion trend forecasting industry. Only by paying high consulting fees can fashion brands get the trend information for the next season.
According to the World Apparel and Footwear Network, WGSN said that the organization now has more than 75,000 active user subscriptions, and more than 6,500 corporate customers, users can access more than 70,000 design templates, patterns and color databases, this database is constantly updated, and Reflects the next season's forecasting trend.
The same is true of Pantone, the color prediction agency that has become more familiar in recent years. The company has gained a lot of attention because of the popular colors released every year. When Pantone announced the popular colors of “Pink Blue†and “Pink Crystal†in 2016, people found These two colors are everywhere, and the fast-fashion that is most sensitive to trends is quickly using popular colors. But in fact, the company's more color prediction information also requires a design company that needs to pay a fee.
However, fashion brands pay consulting fees for trend forecasting agencies initially to better understand the aesthetic trends of consumers and society, but now they are increasingly becoming the choice of “safety cardsâ€, which also causes brands to rely too much on trend predictions. The phenomenon of similar trends.
Marc Worth, the Englishman who founded WGSN, admits that the trend forecasting system is not without flaws. People complain that everything looks the same today, but when thousands of companies sign up for trend forecasting services, look at the same color predictions and the same material color. Board, there really isn't any fresh ideas coming out.
Nienke Adegeest of the Amsterdam Fashion Institute pointed out the root cause of the similar trend, that is, the unwillingness to take risks for commercial interests. “The forecasting agency has determined the trend, fashion brands are not willing to take risks, and their main goal is to make a profitâ€. Therefore, more and more brands choose to conservatively choose the trend forecasting recommendations, rather than bet the risk of marginalization of new season products by consumers.
Social media has also played a role in fueling it, and fashion bloggers have intensified their follow-up. When fashion bloggers put on Gucci fur slippers, it triggered a large-scale follow-up of social media, and this spread has intensified the marginalization of other items. While the products with fur and slippers design elements are eagerly awaited, those brands that have not followed the trend have suffered an unprecedented cold. In today's unpredictable fashion industry, many central brands cannot afford the losses that run counter to market trends.
In fact, not only small and medium-sized brands are unwilling to take risks, but luxury brands as a whole are increasingly conservative. According to the fashion analysis company's Edited survey data, luxury brands such as Michael Kors, Prada, Louis Vuitton and Burberry have reduced the number of new handbags launched in the fourth quarter of 2016 due to lack of innovation and consumer demand for luxury goods. .
In the third quarter ended December 31, 2016, Michael Kors reduced the number of new handbags by 24%, the average number of new handbags by Prada and Louis Vuitton decreased by 35%, and the number of Burberry new models decreased by 8%. .
Some analysts believe that this is because major brands are busy reducing inventory, reducing promotions and streamlining the store network, while ignoring product innovation. Luxury Institute's luxury consultant Milton Pedrza said that on the surface, the reduction of the number of luxury brands is a concern that the inventory of goods is too high, but in fact the brand's lack of innovation and it is difficult to rekindle the interest of consumers. He stressed that the lack of innovation has become the norm in the luxury industry, so any decision made by the brand is defensive, which undoubtedly disappoints the industry.
The conservative concerns of luxury brands on business factors are also reflected in the increasing frequency of hiring KOLs. These KOLs can use their influence to easily create explosives and reduce the risk of their own creative ideas. Luxury brands such as Burberry, Dior and Jaeger-LeCoultre are competing to promote their products by inviting influential stars such as Wu Yifan, Luhan, Angelababy and papi sauce. Dior announced this year that Angelababy and Zhao Liying have become brand ambassadors, and Michael Kors has taken away the young lady Yang Mi. The commonality of these stars is that they have many fans on social media.
Some analysts believe that the logic of creating explosive models has become a key trend of replication + KOL brings goods, and the creativity of the products themselves has been neglected.
It is worth noting that with the development of algorithms and mathematical models, trend predictions have evolved from qualitative social surveys to data-driven quantitative research. Therefore, more and more new Internet trend forecasting agencies are emerging outside the traditional WGSN.
In fashion magazine KOL Alexa Chung's documentary The Future of Fashion for the British version of VOGUE, she interviewed WGSN's director and some Internet trend forecasting start-ups, which often have a small team, but with excellent precision algorithms in the industry. Play more and more influence. Britain's digital-driven forecasting company Editd and New York's Snoops are among the best.
Data-driven correlation calculations are at the heart of future trend predictions. Internet trend forecasting agencies draw trend conclusions through data capture and mathematical model analysis. Unlike traditional trend forecasting, new trend forecasts are less affected by forecaster personal bias. The easiest way to analyze is to continuously search for the search volume of different keywords such as “broken jeansâ€, which is more complicated, such as calculating the correlation between the two variables, so that it is possible to get a similar “18-25 year old consumerâ€. The conclusion that street style will be increasingly favored.
However, as big data plays an increasingly important role in fashion brands and e-commerce, some consumers believe that big data makes shopping lack of surprises. For consumers who are constantly pursuing individualization, today's trend forecast has fallen into a conservative cycle, and the same trend can no longer meet the needs of consumers, while the seemingly constantly updated products are actually repeating the past.
If there is no real creative output, then the accuracy of the data analysis capability of the trend forecast will not help. Be aware that the fundamental appeal of fashion is to provide freshness.
For more exciting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing and footwear network.
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